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OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to review current use of experts within National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance-making programmes, identify improvements in use of expert judgement, and to assess tools and protocols to support the elicitation of information from experts for use by NICE.
METHODS: The study comprised a review of NICE process guides; semi-structured interviews with individuals representing each NICE guidance-making programme and a comparison of the suitability of currently available tools and protocols for expert elicitation to the requirements of NICE programmes.
RESULTS: Information elicited from experts and the way in which it is used varies across NICE guidance-making programmes. Experts' involvement can be as intensive as being a member of a committee and thus having direct influence on recommendations or limited one-off consultations on specific parameters. We identified 16 tools for expert elicitation that were potentially relevant. None fully met the requirements of NICE, although an existing tool could be potentially adapted. Ongoing research to develop a reference protocol for expert elicitation in healthcare decision making may be of use in future.
CONCLUSIONS: NICE uses expert judgement across all its guidance-making programmes, but its uses vary considerably. There is no currently available tool for expert elicitation suitable for use by NICE. However, adaptation of an existing tool or ongoing research in the area could address this in the future.
OBJECTIVE: Precision medicine allows healthcare interventions to be tailored to groups of patients based on their disease susceptibility, diagnostic or prognostic information, or treatment response. We analysed what developments are expected in precision medicine over the next decade and considered the implications for health technology assessment (HTA) agencies.
METHODS: We performed a pragmatic literature search to account for the large size and wide scope of the precision medicine literature. We refined and enriched these results with a series of expert interviews up to 1 h in length, including representatives from HTA agencies, research councils and researchers designed to cover a wide spectrum of precision medicine applications and research.
RESULTS: We identified 31 relevant papers and interviewed 13 experts. We found that three types of precision medicine are expected to emerge in clinical practice: complex algorithms, digital health applications and 'omics'-based tests. These are expected to impact upon each stage of the HTA process, from scoping and modelling through to decision-making and review. The complex and uncertain treatment pathways associated with patient stratification and fast-paced technological innovation are central to these effects.
DISCUSSION: Innovation in precision medicine promises substantial benefits but will change the way in which some health services are delivered and evaluated. The shelf life of guidance may decrease, structural uncertainty may increase and new equity considerations will emerge. As biomarker discovery accelerates and artificial intelligence-based technologies emerge, refinements to the methods and processes of evidence assessments will help to adapt and maintain the objective of investing in healthcare that is value for money.
BACKGROUND: Treatment cycling with biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, such as tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi), is common among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and can result in reduced clinical efficacy and increased economic burden. Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of RA.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare the economic effect of tofacitinib 5 mg twice daily (BID) treatment directly after methotrexate (MTX) in the MTX-inadequate responder population, or after MTX and 1 TNFi (adalimumab [ADA] or etanercept [ETN]) or 2 TNFi (ADA and ETN) in TNF-inadequate responder patients with RA, from a U.S. payer perspective.
METHODS: A decision-tree economic model was used to evaluate costs over 2 years. Treatment response was modeled as American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20/50/70 response. ACR response rates at 6-month intervals were derived from U.S. prescribing information for monotherapy and combination therapy. Safety event rates were sourced from a meta-analysis. It was assumed that 75% of patients switched therapy after an adverse event or lack of response. Cost inputs included drugs, monitoring and administration (including physician visits), health care utilization, and treatment for adverse events. The population comprised all organization members (i.e., RA and non-RA members); RA patients receiving TNFi were estimated using epidemiologic data. Results were based on an organization size of 1 million. Economic endpoints were total 2-year costs, costs per member per month (PMPM), and costs per ACR20/50 responder.
RESULTS: 1,321 patients were included for analysis. Based on ACR20 switch criteria and either 100% or 50% monotherapy rates for all treatments, total 2-year costs and costs PMPM were lower for patients receiving tofacitinib as second-line therapy after MTX and as third-line therapy after MTX and 1 TNFi; costs were highest for patients who cycled through 2 TNFi. Similar trends were observed for switch criteria based on ACR50 response and addition of 20% rebates for ADA and ETN and 0% for tofacitinib, although differences were mitigated slightly.
CONCLUSIONS: A treatment strategy with tofacitinib as either second- or third-line therapy after MTX may be a lower cost treatment option, compared with fourth-line introduction of tofacitinib after cycling through 2 TNFi following MTX.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the York Faecal Calprotectin Care Pathway (YFCCP) and undertake a health economics analysis. The YFCCP has been introduced in support of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance DG11. It is designed to improve the sensitivity and specificity of faecal calprotectin (FC) in discriminating the irritable bowel syndrome from inflammatory bowel disease in primary care.
DESIGN:To prospectively evaluate the clinical outcomes at 6 months of the first 1005 patients entering the YFCCP. To develop a cost-consequence model using two comparators: one based on clinical assessment and the C reactive protein/erythrocyte sedimentation rate without using FC, and the second using single testing of the standard FC cut-off.
SETTING: North Yorkshire primary care practices.
PATIENTS: Primary care patients fulfilling NICE DG11.
INTERVENTIONS: The YFCCP.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical outcome measures from secondary care records.
RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of the YFCCP are 0.94 (0.85 to 0.98) and 0.92 (0.90 to 0.94), giving a negative and positive predictive value of 0.99 (0.98 to 1.0) and 0.51 (0.43 to 0.59), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The YFCCP overcomes the challenges experienced with FC use in primary care, its efficacy matching initial NICE projections. It is readily incorporated into clinical practice. It should represent the framework on which to increase NICE DG11 implementation nationally.
PURPOSE: Allergic rhinitis and asthma symptoms are detrimental to health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Health technology appraisal agencies often require cost-utility analysis when assessing new interventions. Appropriate utility estimates, which quantify the value of different conditions in cost-utility analyses, are scarce for allergic rhinitis and asthma health states. This study aimed to generate utilities for allergic rhinitis and asthma health states from a European general population sample of adults and children.
METHODS: Health state descriptions incorporating symptoms, impact of symptoms on daily life and symptom treatment were developed using clinical guidelines. Descriptions were amended with clinician and patient input, and incorporated into a survey in which each health state was followed by a standard gamble (adults) or visual analogue scale (children) item. The survey was distributed to samples of adults and children aged 8 to 11 from four European countries that were stratified to represent the general population within that country.
RESULTS: 1454 adults and 1082 children completed the survey. Mean health utilities ranged from 0.635 to 0.880 and those elicited in children were lower (0.635 to 0.705) than those elicited in adults (0.812 to 0.880). Disutilities assessing the impact of increased allergic rhinitis severity and comorbidities were also greater in children than in adults.
CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms of allergic rhinitis and asthma were valued as having a clinically meaningful impact on HRQoL. Children valued health states as poorer than adults, and further research should investigate whether this reflects true preferential differences or results from methodological and/or comprehension differences between the two groups.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of endobronchial coils on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL). This paper utilizes trial data to identify the predictors of HRQoL in patients with severe emphysema, and subsequently estimates the impact of a new treatment on HRQoL (measured by utilities). These utility estimates are used to generate indicative long-term QALY estimates for a range of clinically plausible scenarios as a precursor to cost-effectiveness analyses.
METHODS: Patient level HRQoL data from RENEW and the National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT) were combined and mapped to generic EuroQol 5-dimension health utility questionnaire (EQ-5D) values using a published algorithm. Multilevel statistical models were developed using treatment, time, response, and baseline characteristics (EQ-5D, age, gender, FEV1, lung RV) to predict EQ-5D over time. Lifetime QALY estimates were generated using published survival data from NETT (assuming no impact of treatment on mortality) and four clinically plausible response profiles. Each response profile was combined with assumptions around treatment impact (constant or time varying).
RESULTS: After controlling for baseline characteristics, both treatment and response had a statistically significant impact (p < .001) on utility (+0.101 and +0.061, respectively). When combined with selected baseline characteristics and time, Coils and Standard of Care (SoC) generated more QALYs than SoC alone in all scenarios, with incremental lifetime benefit ranging from 0.29–0.55 QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: Coils and SoC resulted in statistically significant improvements in HRQoL compared to SoC alone in patients with severe emphysema.
BACKGROUND: Most economic evaluations of smoking cessation interventions have used cohort state-transition models. Discrete event simulations (DESs) have been proposed as a superior approach.
OBJECTIVE: We developed a state-transition model and a DES using the discretely integrated condition event (DICE) framework and compared the cost-effectiveness results. We performed scenario analysis using the DES to explore the impact of alternative assumptions.
METHODS: The models estimated the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the intervention and comparator from the perspective of the UK National Health Service and Personal Social Services over a lifetime horizon. The models considered five comorbidities: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke and lung cancer. The state-transition model used prevalence data, and the DES used incidence. The costs and utility inputs were the same between two models and consistent with those used in previous analyses for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.
RESULTS: In the state-transition model, the intervention produced an additional 0.16 QALYs at a cost of £540, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £3438. The comparable DES scenario produced an ICER of £5577. The ICER for the DES increased to £18,354 when long-term relapse was included.
CONCLUSIONS:
The model structures themselves did not influence smoking cessation cost-effectiveness results, but long-term assumptions did. When there is variation in long-term predictions between interventions, economic models need a structure that can reflect this.
