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AIM: To develop a novel metabolic computer model of the natural lifetime progression of type 2 diabetes that generates dynamic risk factor trajectories consistent with prespecified lifetime therapeutic strategies, in order to enhance the long-term economic and outcome modelling of type 2 diabetes and its complications.
METHODS: The main model drivers of progressive disease were changes in insulin sensitivity and islet ß-cell function derived from an analysis of follow-up results from the Belfast Diet Study. These were related to clinical measures through an adaptation of the homeostasis model assessment. Established causal relationships estimating body mass index, lipids and blood pressure from measures of glycaemia and plasma insulin were calibrated using Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (USA) data, standardizing for age, sex, ethnicity and smoking. The effects of individual interventions were calibrated using published trial evidence, in line with the current understanding of the main modes of action of each agent.
RESULTS: A comparison of the effects of common therapies using the model showed both similarities and differences. Large improvements in glycaemic control from lifestyle modifications, further enhanced by oral glucose-lowering drugs or insulin, were reproduced. Projections comparing lifetime therapeutic strategies suggest that simple guidelines may not always be valid.
CONCLUSION: This novel mathematical model using evidence from the long-term natural history of type 2 diabetes is able to project the expected effects of various antihyperglycaemic therapies. Coupled with an economic model, this metabolic model may provide a mechanism for healthcare professionals and policymakers to evaluate different long-term strategies for the management of type 2 diabetes.
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INTRODUCTION: Recent clinical trial results have demonstrated that, in patients with type 2 diabetes, second-line treatment of rosiglitazone in combination with metformin can lead to significant improvements in the control of fasting plasma glucose/glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) after the failure of metformin monotherapy. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the use of rosiglitazone in combination with metformin in overweight and obese patients with type 2 diabetes in the UK, failing to maintain glycaemic control with metformin monotherapy compared with conventional care using metformin in combination with sulfonylurea.
METHODS: The Diabetes Decision Analysis of Cost - type 2 (DiDACT) model, an established long-term economic model of type 2 diabetes, which projects the relationship between treatment and HbA1c over extended periods, was used to determine the health outcomes and economic impact for matched age and sex cohorts of 1000 patients with type 2 diabetes. The perspective was that of the UK National Health Service and all costs were in UK pounds sterling.
RESULTS: Treatment with rosiglitazone in combination with metformin provides better glycaemic control over the remaining lifetime of patients than metformin and sulfonylurea combination therapy. Patients treated with rosiglitazone combination therapy were predicted to have a longer life expectancy, gaining 123 and 140 additional life years per 1000 patients in the obese and overweight cohorts, respectively. Improvements in morbidity and a delay in the start of insulin therapy resulted in a projected improvement in quality of life. These effects combine with projected improved survival to yield 131 and 209 additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per 1000 patients in the obese and overweight cohorts, respectively. Discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated at £16 700 per QALY gained for the obese cohort and £11 600 per QALY gained for the overweight cohort.
CONCLUSION: The model predicts that rosiglitazone in combination with metformin is a cost-effective treatment in the UK for both obese and overweight patients failing on metformin monotherapy, compared with conventional therapy using metformin in combination with sulfonylurea.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of post-acute care for older people in a locality based community hospital compared with a department for care of elderly people in a district general hospital, which admits patients aged over 76 years with acute medical conditions.
DESIGN: Cost effectiveness analysis within a randomised controlled trial.
SETTING: Community hospital and district general hospital in Yorkshire, England.
PARTICIPANTS: 220 patients needing rehabilitation after an acute illness for which they required admission to hospital.
INTERVENTIONS: Multidisciplinary care in the district general hospital or prompt transfer to the community hospital.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: EuroQol EQ-5D scores transformed into quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and health and social service costs over six months from randomisation.
RESULTS: The mean QALY score for the community hospital group was marginally non-significantly higher than that for the district general hospital group (0.38 v 0.35) at six months after recruitment. The mean (standard deviation) costs per patient of the health and social services resources used were similar for both groups: community hospital group 7233 pounds sterling (euros 10,567; 13,341 dollars) (5031 pounds sterling), district general hospital group 7351 pounds sterling(6229 pounds sterling), and these findings were robust to several sensitivity analyses. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio for community hospital care dominated. A cost effectiveness acceptability curve, based on bootstrapped simulations, suggests that at a willingness to pay threshold of 10,000 pounds sterling per QALY, 51% of community hospital cases will be cost effective, which rises to 53% of cases when the threshold is 30,000 pounds sterling per QALY.
CONCLUSION: Post-acute care for older people in a locality based community hospital is of similar cost effectiveness to that of an elderly care department in a district general hospital.
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