Disease model

A disease model is a simplified mathematical representation of the natural history and progression of a disease over time within a patient cohort. In health technology assessment, these models are used to simulate chronic disease progression and the impact of risk factors on disease incidence, progression, and mortality. A micro-simulation approach is often used, but simpler models may use a cohort Markov design. Model inputs generally come from epidemiological studies. Disease models may be used to assess the potential impact of new therapies by varying the disease progression rates or risk factor balances. They may form the foundation for economic models, where specific treatment options are compared and treatment costs and utility values are included as inputs.