Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to estimate costs (including medications prescribed, intervention rates and hospital utilization) and health outcomes of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) during the first year following diagnosis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Treatment pathways for ACS patients were developed and country-specific resource use was multiplied by unit costs. Countries examined were the United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Patients with unstable angina and acute myocardial infarction (ST-segment elevation and non-ST-segment elevation with/without Q-wave) were considered. The study models the incidence of ACS, 1-year mortality, investigations, revascularisation, pharmaceutical use and medical management. Economic outcomes were direct healthcare costs (in 2004 Euros), including total cost, cost per patient with ACS and cost per capita.

RESULTS: The estimated number of deaths in the first year following ACS diagnosis ranged from around 22 500 in Spain to over 90 000 in Germany. The largest contributors to total costs are hospital stay and revascularisation procedures. Pharmaceuticals were estimated at 14-25% of ACS total cost. The total cost of ACS in the UK is estimated around 1.9 billion Euros, compared with 1.3 billion Euros in France, 3.3 billion Euros in Germany, 3.1 billion Euros in Italy and 1.0 billion Euros in Spain. The cost per ACS patient ranges from 7009 Euros (in the UK) to 12,086 Euros (Italy).

CONCLUSIONS: Countries with higher expenditure on ACS patients tended to have lower case-fatality rates, and countries with the lowest incidence of ACS also had the lowest cost per capita. The costs of ACS constitute a large proportion of total healthcare expenditure of Western European economies.

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OBJECTIVES: Australia, Canada, and many European countries now use various forms of health technology assessment (HTA) in decision making regarding the reimbursement of drugs and other health technologies. To achieve a better understanding of the potential for use of HTA in this context, an analytical framework was developed to describe and classify existing fourth hurdle systems.

METHODS: Based on a review of published literature, and official documentation, the key aspects of a fourth hurdle system were identified at two levels: policy implementation and individual technology decision. Characteristics of the systems were grouped under four main headings: constitution and governance, objectives, use of evidence and decision processes, and accountability. The comprehensiveness and relevance of this framework was assessed by an independent group of experts in HTA. A pilot study was undertaken, using only published sources, to test the feasibility of obtaining the information needed to complete the framework.

RESULTS: The framework was found to be sufficiently broad to encompass all the issues of interest regarding the systems, but the proportion of information available from published sources was variable between sections of the framework and between countries, with average availability of 45 percent.

CONCLUSIONS: The analytical framework will help researchers and policy makers in individual countries to understand their own systems and will allow some preliminary sharing of experience between countries. More experience of its application is needed to judge whether it will provide the basis for more formal comparison of systems and whether it will determine their appropriateness for particular decision contexts.

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AIM: To develop a novel metabolic computer model of the natural lifetime progression of type 2 diabetes that generates dynamic risk factor trajectories consistent with prespecified lifetime therapeutic strategies, in order to enhance the long-term economic and outcome modelling of type 2 diabetes and its complications.

METHODS: The main model drivers of progressive disease were changes in insulin sensitivity and islet ß-cell function derived from an analysis of follow-up results from the Belfast Diet Study. These were related to clinical measures through an adaptation of the homeostasis model assessment. Established causal relationships estimating body mass index, lipids and blood pressure from measures of glycaemia and plasma insulin were calibrated using Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (USA) data, standardizing for age, sex, ethnicity and smoking. The effects of individual interventions were calibrated using published trial evidence, in line with the current understanding of the main modes of action of each agent.

RESULTS: A comparison of the effects of common therapies using the model showed both similarities and differences. Large improvements in glycaemic control from lifestyle modifications, further enhanced by oral glucose-lowering drugs or insulin, were reproduced. Projections comparing lifetime therapeutic strategies suggest that simple guidelines may not always be valid.

CONCLUSION: This novel mathematical model using evidence from the long-term natural history of type 2 diabetes is able to project the expected effects of various antihyperglycaemic therapies. Coupled with an economic model, this metabolic model may provide a mechanism for healthcare professionals and policymakers to evaluate different long-term strategies for the management of type 2 diabetes.

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